Schoharie County is the percentage loss leader in population among all New York counties, according to the 2020 Census.
The county’s population dropped from 32,749 in 2010 to 29,714 in 2020, a loss of 3,035 people, according to Census figures provided by the Empire Center in Albany.
Percentage-wise, that’s a fall of 9.3 percent. No other county had a decrease of more than eight percent.
Of the county’s 22 municipalities––16 towns, six villages––just one showed an increase. That was the Village of Esperance, with a hike of only one person.
“This is the legacy of the flood, I think,” said County Administrator Steve Wilson, referring to Hurricane Irene, which swept the Schoharie Valley in 2011.
“We’re seeing the effect of people who aren’t coming back or didn’t come back.”
That impact was felt along Schoharie Creek. Although the Town of Schoharie’s population dropped by only 98 or 3.1 percent, the towns of Esperance, Middleburgh, Gilboa, Blenheim and Fulton decreased by a total of 1,412. Nearly half of the county’s loss was in those five towns. (See table.)
But other towns outside the Valley lost substantial population as well, including Cobleskill, Carlisle, Richmondville and Sharon.
Mr. Wilson pointed to factors other than the 2011 flood, such as a lack of large employers and young people seeking work elsewhere.
“Jobs are a big part of it,” he said. “Kids are leaving, and in some cases, their parents are leaving to be near them.”
Shane Nickle of the county’s Office of Community Services, agreed, adding that young people are leaving not only for jobs, but also for the convenience that suburbs and cities offer.
“Young people want to recreate, work and live in places where they can bike and walk,” Mr. Nickle said.
As evidence, Mr. Nickle noted increases in urban and suburban areas and decreases in more rural counties. Delaware, Otsego and Tioga counties all had decreases of five percent or more, though not as high as Schoharie County.
The population loss hits hard at three areas: fewer taxpayers to fund schools and local government, fewer customers to shop locally, and fewer people in a labor pool that was already small.
The county should step up efforts, already in progress, to bring in “jobs-producing businesses,” Mr. Wilson said.
He suggested developing shovel-ready sites along the Route 7 corridor “to take advantage of federal dollars.”
What’s necessary, Mr. Wilson added, is promoting the county’s “low-cost land, low-cost labor and low-cost government.
“The real thing to get people here is jobs,” he said. “We’ve got stuff to do.”
Nonetheless, Mr. Wilson was mildly optimistic, noting that the county has factors in its favor, including its scenic beauty and its short commuting distance to the Capital District.
In some towns, more people have already arrived. Mr. Nickle pointed out that some families have moved out of the New York City metro area because of COVID and higher local real estate prices have reflected the new demand.
Any rebound because of COVID move-ins wouldn’t be reflected in the census numbers because families came after the census count, Mr. Nickle said.