Had enough of winter?
Too bad. There’s plenty more rough weather ahead.
Short-term forecasts indicate continuing deeper cold than normal, while long-range predictions call for more snow than usual, according to Raymond O’Keefe.
Mr. O’Keefe is the chief meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Albany, and as such, he’s been keeping tabs on what’s already been a more rugged winter than the past few years.
December was 2.1 degrees colder than normal, and January 1.1 degrees colder than usual, he said.
And then came Monday.
The official low temperature at Albany International Airport registered -13 Monday morning. An observer in Cobleskill called in the coldest Schoharie County temperature, -22.
“That’s one of the coldest days we’ve had in some time,” Mr. O’Keefe said. “The last time it was this cold was January 24, 2005––the same day.”
Still, Albany’s -13 wasn’t a record, which is -17.
Although the area hasn’t had any monster snowstorms, precipitation is ahead of normal, too.
Albany’s measured 45.7 inches of snow this season. The norm for late January is 31.6; last year we had only 19.1 inches at this time.
The normal snowfall total is 62.7 inches. Two years ago, the seasonal total was 52.6, and last year, just 45.4, so we’re already past the 2009-10 mark.
Snowfall totals in Cobleskill and the Schoharie Valley are about the same as Albany’s, though higher Schoharie County elevations have had more, Mr. O’Keefe said.
Any way you look at it, we’ve had plenty.
“We’re way ahead of normal,” Mr. O’Keefe said. “February and March are pretty active, so we still have two of biggest months for snow ahead of us.”
He attributed the weather to abnormally warmer Arctic air leading to abnormally cooler air over the Northeast.
That cold weather is likely to continue over the next seven to 10 days, Mr. O’Keefe said. Forecasts show lows of -7 to 17 over the period.
One consolation––just a slight one––is that the wintry season is almost half over.
“The next 10 days will put us into February, and we’ve put December and January behind us, so a big chunk of winter is over,” Mr. O’Keefe said.
But not entirely over, he said.
Over the next couple of months snowfall should continue to be slightly above normal.
There’s no indication of what the temperatures will be. Mr. O’Keefe said there are “equal chances” on the forecast, meaning temperatures could be below, above or at normal.
“Unfortunately, Mother Nature doesn’t tip her hand as often as we’d like,” he said.