Thanks largely to a growing international demand for cheese and butter, New York State's dairy farmers are seeing record prices for their milk.
Record high-not low.
Prices have been hovering near $27 per hundred pounds of milk and though costs-especially for feed-remain high, most farmers are doing well, said Cornell Cooperative Extension Dairy Specialist Dave Balbian.
Domestic dairy consumption is a little like the weather, Mr. Balbian said: Within a small fraction, fairly easy to predict.
So even though people are drinking less milk, but eating more butter, cheese and now yogurt, the numbers don't change that much when you're looking at the big picture.
International consumption, though, is a different story.
In 2013, the United States exported the equivalent of 15.5 percent of its milk production in the form of powdered milk, cheese, and butter.
"We feel like we're past due for a downturn in exports," which aren't as steady or reliable as domestic markets, "but they've held up," Mr. Balbian said.
Exports are up largely because of an elevated standard of living in places like China and even Mexico, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East, which in turn have ramped up what they're contributing to the world economy, Mr. Balbian said.
"How long it will continue is hard to tell," he said. "There are always bumps in the road. But if, say, exports suddenly dropped to 10 percent? Our milk prices would go off the cliff."
And that's always been the danger with international markets: Natural disasters, changes in monetary rates, and unpredictable leaders and regimes.
Which still leaves the unpredictable weather.
This time last June, farmers were struggling with near-constant rain.
Many of those who'd been able to get on their land to plant corn watched as it was washed away.
And making hay was just about impossible.
It's a different story this June, Mr. Balbian said, and farmers are already at work rebuilding their feed inventories, something that will help them make sure they have high-quality hay and corn silage to feed throughout the fall and winter and into next spring.
Yes, that could lead to increased milk production, something that's traditionally sent prices see-sawing, but, he pointed out, every farm needs to do what's best for their operation.
"The focus needs to be on viability," Mr. Balbian said. "Sometimes, that means getting bigger so that there will be a farm for the next generation. You can't worry about what's happening in the rest of the industry."

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