The lack of jobs combined with hurricanes and floods drove Schoharie County's population to new depths over the past five years.
New estimates from the US Census Bureau show Schoharie County lost 1,100 people between 2010 and 2014, from 32,666 to 31,566. The 3.4-percent loss was one of the largest in the state.
The impacts could be serious. Fewer students may mean less state aid for schools, and fewer customers translates into less money being spent in local businesses.
Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee in 2011 were likely factors in the population drop, according to Senior Planner Shane Nickle of the county's Planning and Development Agency.
"People who weren't longtime residents and bought homes, then endured the flood. . .they decided not to stick it out," Mr. Nickle said.
Irene and Lee might be short-term factors, however, as SALT and New York Rising are rebuilding homes in the Schoharie Valley to draw families back.
County Treasurer Bill Cherry, who directs economic development, believes the storms may affect population for only five to 10 years.
The greater deterrent? No jobs.
"We have so much to offer when it comes to quality of life, but ultimately, we have to have something that keeps people here, and that's meaningful jobs," said Assemblyman Pete Lopez.
Cobleskill-Richmondville Superintendent Carl Mummenthey agreed. Schoharie County schools lose about two percent of their students per year, indicating a longstanding lack of job prospects.
"We need to grow job opportunities in manufacturing, hospitality and tourism and agriculture," Mr. Mummenthey said.
"There are so many ways Schoharie County can grow, but right now the opportunities are limited."
The Howe Caverns casino may have helped, Assemblyman Lopez said, but another solution would be zoning and planning policies that promote economic growth.
"When new opportunities arise, are we going to fight them or see if we can find a way to make them work?" he asked.
Mr. Cherry believes Schoharie County has the potential to turn the corner on job growth, and therefore population growth.
He pointed to START-UP NY, which gives tax breaks to companies coming to New York and was essential in the sale of Cobleskill's vacant Guilford Mills plant.
Mr. Cherry also noted that Governor Andrew Cuomo's $1.5 billion Upstate revitalization plan will help.
"Workers go where the companies are," Mr. Cherry said. "If we can tap into this, we could transform this region.
"But we have to attract the businesses first; the people will follow."
Another avenue might be promoting Schoharie County as a good place to live in the Capital District, Mr. Nickle said.
The Capital District showed population gains in Albany, Schenectady and Saratoga counties, and Schoharie could encourage people to move here, he said.
"This is a nice place to live," Mr. Nickle said. "Saratoga is booming, but the commute from here to Albany is quicker than it is from Saratoga. But people don't know that."
Although Capital District counties did show growth, population loss is mostly an Upstate, rural issue. Nearby Otsego, Delaware, Fulton and Montgomery counties also showed declines, though none as large as Schoharie's, percentage-wise.
Before becoming Cobleskill-Richmondville's superintendent last year, Mr. Mummenthey held the same post at Jefferson Central, which is in the Otsego Northern Catskills BOCES region.
"ONC BOCES has about 9,000 kids but loses about 300 a year," Mr. Mummenthey said. "That means they lose a school the size of Jefferson every year."