Schoharie County's first-quarter sales-tax revenue plummeted from the same period a year ago, but the decline isn't necessarily a sign of a worsening economy.
Instead, the revenue drop, one of the largest in the state percentage-wise, "could just be a blip on the screen," according to County Treasurer Bill Cherry.
Released by the state Association of Counties, the numbers show sales-tax revenue of $3,064,374 for January through March of this year and $3,429,181 for the first quarter in 2014.
The difference, a loss of $364,807, is a decline of 10.6 percent.
The loss could be critical because it might indicate a sagging economy. Or it might point to a loss in tax revenue to the county, which depends heavily on sales taxes.
"It's the worst in the state, I think," Mr. Cherry said. "We are the only double-digit decrease. Others are five percent, seven percent, eight percent. We're 10."
Mr. Cherry, however, isn't too worried.
Frequently a sharp decline in sales-tax revenue reflects slumping retail sales. But that's not likely the case given a breakdown of Schoharie County's numbers.
The county received revenue from the state for January and February, and both those months are up from 2014, Mr. Cherry said.
The combined increase is about $164,000. In order to reach the stated decrease of $364,807, the revenue in March would have had to drop more than $500,000.
"Over a half million swing in March? I'm gonna have to see it," Mr. Cherry said.
The county hasn't received its March revenue yet, and the state Department of Taxation and Finance doesn't provide explanations, Mr. Cherry said.
He believes the decrease could be an adjustment by the state in past sales tax overpayments. If a large retailer like Wal-Mart overpaid in a previous quarter, for instance, the state would make a later adjustment in revenue.
"More often than not, we try to ignore short-term adjustments," Mr. Cherry said. "The trend is more important."
The county took in $14.2 million in sales-tax revenue in 2013 and $14.975 million last year. Mr. Cherry budgeted a slight decrease, $14.775 million, for this year.
"We budget conservatively," he said. "It's way too early to say we're not on track to hit [$14.775 million] this year.
"I don't see any fundamental problem with our economy."